“We are entering a new era for Lebanon,” said former army chief Joseph Aoun after winning Lebanon’s presidential election on Jan. 9, 2025, ending a two-year power vacuum. After his election, Aoun appointed Nawaf Salam, former president of the International Court of Justice, as prime minister. The election marks a significant shift in Lebanon’s political landscape, as the new leadership represents “new” Lebanon, introducing a fresh political agenda that further diminishes the influence of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia militia, both in Lebanon and across the region.
Hezbollah’s diminishing influence can be attributed to military setbacks. They have been involved in a cycle of violent conflict with Israel for years. Following the events of Oct. 7 between Hamas and Israel, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in a show of solidarity with the Palestinian militant group. Tensions escalated in September 2024 when Israel carried out devastating air strikes and ground invasions into southern Lebanon, killing 3,961 civilians since October 2023 and displacing tens of thousands. Mounting civilian casualties fueled Hezbollah’s declining popularity, as innocent lives got caught in the conflict. Hezbollah’s intervention backfired, leading to significant losses, including the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Weakened by the conflict, the group’s military capacity and religious influence diminished.
Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon has also declined due to political isolation. Hezbollah’s involvement in regional conflicts diminished support from neighboring allies, including the Gulf States. Strained relations reduced foreign investments, hurting Lebanon’s economy and fueling public criticism of the group’s dominance. After all, Hezbollah does not represent the beliefs of the people in Lebanon, as the majority of the population does not support the organization and its political and social ideology.
Taking advantage of Lebanon’s prolonged political stalemate, which left the country without a president for over a year, Hezbollah was able to expand its control over parts of the government. The deadlock weakened state institutions and allowed Hezbollah to consolidate power. However, the conflict with Israel weakened Hezbollah not only militarily but also politically. The recent elections have paved the way for a new government formation. By appointing Salam as prime minister, Aoun made it clear that Hezbollah will not have a place in the government, disregarding Hezbollah’s desire to keep the incumbent in power.
The Hamas-Israel conflict not only contributed to Hezbollah’s weakening in Lebanon, but it also affected their regional power dynamics in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime — a key ally of the group. Without the regime’s support, Hezbollah no longer has access to a critical regional support network. For years, Hezbollah controlled Lebanon’s eastern borders, leveraging Syria’s geographically advantageous position to smuggle weapons into Lebanon from Iran through a route in Syria. Without help from Syria, Hezbollah has struggled to obtain weapons easily, further weakening its military capabilities. Aoun’s election came at a critical time for Lebanon, as the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria presents new economic opportunities and regional realignment for both countries.
After years of political deadlock and government stagnation, the demise of Hezbollah’s power and recent government elections have conjured a newfound hope for a “new” Lebanon. President Aoun has promised to combat the corruption and criminal immunity that have kept the country in a constant state of self-destruction for years. He further promised to reform the military sector by reducing the influence of non-state armed groups and dismantling their monopoly on arms. Also, with experience working as the former president of the I.C.J., Salam is expected to bring about reconstruction in all sectors, including the judiciary, while addressing the country’s economic crisis.
The recent elections in Lebanon, which brought about a new president and prime minister, marked a significant change in the political landscape of the country. The elections symbolize hope to the people for a better future. For reasonable change in the country, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam must rebuild public trust after years of government paralysis. To do so, Aoun and Nawaf must deliver on their promises for reform and show that the needs of the people are their top priority.
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