Andy Kim is far from an outsider to politics. Currently representing New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district in the House of Representatives, Kim’s official biography states that he previously served in government as part of the USAID, State Department, Pentagon, National Security Council, and as a civilian advisor to military leadership in Afghanistan. His candidacy for the South Jersey-based seat was endorsed by former President Barack Obama in 2018 and in 2020, when his district was far more competitive prior to redistricting.
Yet a resume that could easily belong to a seasoned politician is instead that of the underdog insurgent in the 2024 Democratic Senate primary in New Jersey. The corruption-plagued incumbent Bob Menendez has not announced his intentions for this year, but has been abandoned by the party due to his plummeting approval ratings and federal indictment. New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy has emerged as the choice of the party establishment, making Kim the outsider aiming to win over grassroots progressives and defeat the state’s powerful party bosses. And so far, it seems to be working.
Kim holds double digit leads over Murphy in polling, but perhaps even more importantly he is winning over party members at county conventions. New Jersey ballot rules give the candidate endorsed by the county Democrats at the convention better placement on the ballot, a big advantage many have called unfair and confusing to voters. Still, the rule is unlikely to be reformed any time soon and the county conventions have taken on outsized importance in the leadup to primary day. Candidates endorsed by the counties are expected to fare better on primary day in these counties because of their placement and how it suggests an official endorsement of some sort (rather than a vote at a gathering).
Murphy’s endorsement by most party bosses was expected to lead to her victory in most of these gatherings, but so far Kim has exceeded expectations and won in both Monmouth County (Murphy’s home county) and Burlington County, by wide margins in each of the contests. Not only is he proving popular with much of the voting base, he is winning over more engaged members of the party typically inclined to vote for whomever the leadership endorses.
So can Kim pull it off and win the primary this summer? While it certainly seems that way at the moment, there are several hurdles he will have to clear. Kim’s lead in polling includes a sizable number of undecided voters who could potentially be swayed by either candidate in the coming months. And in a state that is only 53% white, ensuring strong support among all facets of the electorate will be critical for success.
A concern for Kim will be that while his lead stems from strong support with white voters, this is not true of Black and Hispanic voters. Kim leads among white voters 47% to 15%, but trails among Black voters 24% to 16% and among Hispanic voters by 26% to 10%. The numbers show that most voters are uncommitted and open to persuasion, but Kim’s grassroots energy is not spreading to minorities in the same manner. This may be the reason that Kim recently announced a Black Clergy Advisory Council, seeking input from African-American clergy members to court more votes in the community. Murphy was endorsed by a group of Black ministers and community activists at the start of her campaign, perhaps a testament to her husband’s record as governor. The race is far from over and both candidates have many voters to convince — but the task is more challenging for Murphy, who has a much bigger deficit among white voters than Kim does with minority voters.
If South Carolina’s electorate serves as any proof, primary day will see low turnout. For Kim, it will be about maintaining strong support with white progressives and ensuring they do turn out on election day, as well as eating into Murphy’s lead with minorities. For Murphy, she will aim to drive up her support among Black and Hispanic voters and hope for strong turnout from them, in addition to gaining ground with white voters. Kim’s lead suggests that it is his base that is more motivated at the moment, while the party machine has struggled to rally its troops behind Murphy. It is an intriguing turn of events for New Jersey Democrats, with consequences that could determine the future of the Democratic leadership’s strength in a state known for its political corruption. A Kim win would severely dent the party’s influence and could potentially spell the end of its reign as sole powerbroker. If Murphy can mount a comeback and pull through, however, it would show the enduring power of one of the nation’s most renowned party machines.
