As Congress continues to debate over the stalemate on the looming crisis of the debt ceiling, one major issue rules above all, budget cuts. While Democrats would prefer to pass a clean raise of the debt ceiling with no strings attached, many Republicans have a different idea in mind. A vast majority of Republicans are currently demanding a variety of policy changes in order to agree to a debt ceiling. One such potential policy change? Cuts to social welfare programs. While Republican efforts to overhaul programs such as Social Security and Medicaid are not new, they have gotten renewed attention due to the present budget issues. Republicans are currently divided on the issue of cuts to Social Security and Medicare, this sentiment may change. With the June deadline fast approaching, the conservative party may revert to its old stance on the debt ceiling as a potential negotiating tactic. Yet all should beware the consequences of even trying to touch social welfare programs that millions of people rely upon. After all, you need not look further than France to see the consequences of austerity measures.
France can provide crucial lessons worth learning, especially in how the public reacts to public entitlement programs. Back in January of this year, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed pension reforms that would raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. While the reformation boils down to people being required to work for an additional two years, the change is being received very poorly. Current polling of the pension reforms has dropped Macron’s approval rating down to 28%. Due to this unpopular policy change, France is currently undergoing a period of tumultuous protests and strikes. Massive groups of people filling the streets. Civilian standoffs with police. Trash piling up in the streets due to workers going on strike in solidarity with the protests. That same trash is even being lit on fire by protesters. Current polls have two-thirds of responders supporting the protests; 65% want the protests to continue even after the passage of the reforms. As proven by the French citizenry and their groundbreaking protests, the public generally opposes policy changes that impact programs that people believe they’ve earned in their life. The basic picture being presented is quite startling. That a seemingly small austerity measure was met with such mass resistance and such high levels of controversy.
So what does this entire situation mean for the United States? It means that the United States and France share a key similarity. Both nations react incredibly negatively to any proposed public entitlement program cuts. When asked about potential cuts to Social Security and Medicare, 88% of people disapproved of such a proposal, with up to 96% of Democrats and even 84% of Republicans. Medicaid cuts also saw a 76% disapproval rate, with a majority of Republicans (61%) opposing the measure. In an era of heightened polarization between the two parties, public entitlement programs are a rare point of bipartisan agreement.
If Republicans in Congress, for whatever reason, do choose to actively push for any cuts to these programs, they do so at their own peril. The vast majority of the public would disapprove of such actions, as would a substantial portion of their own party. Admittedly, there likely will not be any wide-scale protests like those seen in France currently, corroborated by the fact that Congress as a whole is unwilling to pass such measures — considering the Democrat’s presence in both the Senate and the Presidency. However, such unpopular stances do matter when it comes to future electoral performance. Should the United States breach the debt ceiling due to demands for these program cuts, or Republicans continuously push these types of proposals publicly, the nation will notice. If Republicans ever ignore the desires of the people amid the impending 2024 Presidential elections, then the consequences may reveal themselves as factors in the ballot box rather than as protests on the streets.
