On September 26, 2021, Germany held its long awaited federal election after legendary Chancellor, Angela Merkel, announced her retirement. Her party, the centrist “Christian Democrats Union” (CDU), lost 50 seats and their majority in the German representative body: the Bundestag. Armin Laschet, the successor to Merkel as leader of the party, failed to deliver results and many party members are already calling for his head. Laschet, with Merkel’s help, had defeated the more right wing factions within the CDU in a leadership election last January. This election was seen as a victory for the centrist, Merkelite faction of the party, however with Laschet’s general election defeat, things will have to change in the party. The CDU will inevitably move to the right after the 2021 election. The failure of Laschet and his centrist faction to deliver election results brings up a crisis for the CDU, especially because of the conditions under which the loss happened.
In the leadership election one of Laschet’s opponents was Markus Soder, Minister-President of Bavaria and leader of the more right wing factions within the CDU. Soder lost the leadership election but continued to enjoy high approval ratings among party members. While a loss for Laschet, the election was a win for Soder, who succeeded in Bavaria retaining it’s status as a CDU stronghold.
Soder was especially effective in neutralizing right wing parties in Germany to win constituencies. He also did not allow the Green party to gain seats by advocating for climate change related policies himself, which he has said does not conflict with conservative values.
With the loss of other traditional strongholds, Bavaria is likely to become the new center of the CDU’s voting base. As Minister-President of the region, Soder’s power in the party will only grow, along with the popularity of his merged conservative, christian and environmentalist ideology and the influence of his right wing faction within the CDU.
Traditional CDU strongholds in East Germany and Baden-Wurtemberg were also weakened, leaving space for conservative CDU members to take advantage of. East Germany voted with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) in this election, who ultimately won the most votes and seats in the Bundestag. They were led by Olaf Schulz, who ran on reforming social welfare/security and climate change while making no radical changes to Merkel era policies in other areas. This way, Schulz maintained SPD voters while also winning over the CDU’s older voters in East Germany with social security reform and gaining younger voters with non-radical reform. While senior citizens favour the social security protection of the SPD, they are still a generally conservative group. East German older demographics could be susceptible to a CDU move to the right. Soder’s environmentalist right wing could also capture the interest of younger people in the area who voted SPD. Many young people in East Germany have inherited more socially conservative ideas from their mothers and fathers, who grew up in the communist East Germany, however many of them still put climate change as one of their top issues. East Germany is ripe for a Soderite CDU move to the right.
Another CDU stronghold, Baden-Wurtemberg, largely remained in CDU hands but a large amount of the vote was lost to the right wing FDP and the Greens. If the CDU moved to the right it could capture the more conservative votes lost to the FDP. Unique to German politics, right wing is not synonymous with anti-environmentalism. The CDU could still gain back the Green voters too.
Lastly, the region of Germany called Saxony is ruled by the Afd, the farthest right party, however the CDU is usually not far behind in the constituencies. In this region these two parties have been the dominant forces but Afd have always come out on top. A move to the right could draw away Afd voters and make Saxony a heavily competitive area, giving more votes to the CDU.
A move to the right for the CDU is inevitable. With the wins of Soder’s faction in Bavaria, the losses to Greens and FDP in Baden-Wurtemberg, and the possibility of gaining votes in Saxony, the CDU has to move in a conservative direction to keep power. The CDU’s probable move to the right could have an important effect on German politics and international relations. Germany, a leader in the EU, has led European progressivism for the last 30 years and the moving of a major party to the right would weaken the strength of the EU (a major American ally) and international progressive policy. The German parliament would also generally shift to the right, particularly on immigration and education. The move to the right could have consequences ranging from the elimination of the CDU as a party, to a dominant performance in the next election.
